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新加坡经济遭遇急刹车李显龙说了句耐人寻味的话新加坡经济
2020-01-08 01:26   来源:  www.deepdivescuba.com   评论:0 点击:

新加坡经济遭遇急刹车李显龙说了句耐人寻味的话新加坡经济新加坡日前公布的官方数据显示,2019年新加坡GDP

  新加坡日前公布的官方数据显示,2019年新加坡GDP同比仅增长了%,与2018年%的增速相比,只有四分之一强,和2017年的%相比不到五分之一。

Singapore's GDP grew by only a quarter year-on-year in 2019, only a quarter stronger than in 2018, and less than a fifth in 2017, according to official figures.

  “不够强劲”是委婉的表述。实际上,2019年新加坡经济差一点陷入技术性衰退。是什么原因,导致衰退阴影笼罩到新加坡这个亚洲经济体模范生头上?

“Not strong enough" is a euphemism. Indeed, Singapore's economy nearly plunged into a technological recession in 2019. What is the cause of the recession looming over singapore as a model economy?

  新加坡港口吞吐量、转运量与2018年持平;建筑业2018年萎缩了%,但2019年增长了%;服务业增速虽然不及2018年,但也增长了%。

Singapore's port throughput, transit volume is flat with 2018; the construction industry has shrunk by% in 2018, but it has grown by% in 2019; and the service industry has grown by%, although not as fast as 2018.

  新加坡全球性的投资巨兽淡马锡尽管在2019年卖得多买得少,投资了240亿新元,脱售了280亿新元,但投资组合净值仍然增长了50亿新元,如果与10年前相比则增加了1830亿新元;新加坡的金融资产管理规模也保持在万亿美元左右,近乎新加坡GDP的10倍。

Singapore's global investment behemoth, Temasek, has increased its net portfolio value by S $5 billion, if not S $183 billion, despite selling more or less in 2019, investing S $24 billion and selling off S $28 billion, and its financial asset management has remained around US $trillion, nearly 10 times Singapore's GDP, compared with S $183 billion a decade ago.

  导致新加坡经济低迷的主要是制造业。制造业占新加坡GDP的20%左右,制造业中的大头是电子和精密工程,占比约40%。2019年新加坡制造业同比萎缩了%,而2018年还扩张了7%。

The main cause of Singapore's economic downturn is manufacturing. Manufacturing accounts for about 20% of Singapore's GDP, with electronics and precision engineering accounting for about 40% of manufacturing. Manufacturing in Singapore shrank by% year-on-year in 2019, while it expanded by 7% in 2018.

  导致新加坡电子产业萎靡的主要原因是全球需求下降。2019年,预计全球芯片需求下降%左右,新加坡数以百计的半导体企业因此不同程度地陷入重围。这些企业多数是新加坡与欧美日企业合办的,尽管合办企业让新加坡半导体产业的全球占比迅速上升,但一旦外部形势有变,很容易陷入被动。

The main cause of Singapore's weak electronics industry is falling global demand. Hundreds of semiconductor companies in Singapore are in varying degrees as global chip demand is projected to fall by around% in 2019. Most of these companies are joint ventures between singapore and the u.s. and japan. Although joint ventures have led to a rapid increase in the global share of singapore's semiconductor industry, they can easily become passive if external conditions change.

  去年初新加坡官方预测的2019年经济增速也只有%-%,低于2018年。去年一季度,新加坡GDP同比增长仅为%,延续了2018年逐季下降的势头;二季度GDP出现了负增长。但当时新加坡一直保持已实施了两年多的货币紧缩政策。

At the beginning of last year, Singapore's official forecast for growth in 2019 was also only%-%, lower than in 2018. In the first quarter of last year, Singapore ' s GDP grew by just% year-on-year, continuing the quarterly decline of 2018; in the second quarter, GDP grew negatively. But at the time Singapore maintained a monetary tightening policy that had been in place for more than two years.

  直到10月份才降息,让三季度GDP实现了正增长,避免了连续两个季度负增长从而陷入技术性衰退。显然货币政策的调整有点晚了。

It wasn't until October that it cut interest rates, giving third-quarter GDP positive growth and avoiding two consecutive quarters of negative growth and plunging into a technical recession. The adjustment of monetary policy is obviously a little late.

  二是新加坡的电子产业虽然发展了10多年,但在技术上没有冲到最上游。新加坡电子产业企业多数是合办,合办企业注重市场占领而不是尖端技术开发,因此面对国际贸易摩擦加剧后的变局,应对乏力。比如,合办企业不得不担心上了美国商务部的实体黑名单。

Second, although the electronics industry in Singapore has been developing for more than 10 years, it has not been technically up to the top. Most singapore's electronics companies are co-operatives, with joint ventures focusing on market occupation rather than cutting-edge technology development, which is why they are struggling to cope with the growing international trade friction. Joint ventures, for example, have to worry about being blacklisted by the Commerce Department.

  可以说,新加坡电子业2019年的表现,对于有志于自主研发和掌握半导体核心技术的经济体来说,提供了反面案例。不能什么都靠市场。

Arguably, the performance of singapore's electronics industry in 2019 provides a negative case for an economy that is interested in developing and mastering core semiconductor technologies. You can't rely on the market for everything.

  一方面是新加坡2020年上半年将举行大选。人民行动党有实施更积极的财政和货币政策的动力。李显龙在新年献词中已经透露,即将公布的财政预算案将支持企业提高生产力和培养新能力,政府还将进行技能培训和建设社会安全网。

On the one hand, Singapore will hold general elections in the first half of 2020. The PAP has the incentive to implement more active fiscal and monetary policies. The forthcoming budget will support businesses to improve productivity and build new capabilities, the government will also conduct skills training and build social safety nets, mr li said in a new year's speech.

  另一方面,新加坡家底很厚实,虽然本国产业支撑力不够,但多年来在金融资产管理、出口市场布局方面已积累了足够经验。

On the other hand, singapore has a solid background and, although its industry is not strong enough, it has accumulated enough experience in financial asset management and export market layout over the years.

  淡马锡在中国市场的投资额占到了26%,与新加坡本国一样;中国也仍然是新加坡最大的出口市场。这一点和韩国半导体产业类似。韩国半导体产业2019年遭遇重创,出口下降了%,但在中国仍然保持了5%左右的增长。

Temasek has 26 per cent of its investment in the Chinese market, the same as Singapore itself; China remains the largest export market in Singapore. This is similar to the South Korean semiconductor industry. South Korea's semiconductor industry suffered a heavy blow in 2019, with exports down%, but still maintained around 5% growth in China.

  基于新加坡的经济特点,这几年新加坡特别强调维护多边主义和自由贸易,也积极参与RCEP等多边框架的建设。毕竟,要应对产业危机,除了提升自己的产业竞争力,对单边主义大声说不,也是不得不为的事。

Based on Singapore's economic characteristics, in recent years Singapore has placed special emphasis on upholding multilateralism and free trade, and has also actively participated in the construction of multilateral frameworks such as RCEP. After all, to deal with the industrial crisis, in addition to improving their industrial competitiveness, unilateralism to say no, but also have to do.


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